At present, the public relations war over health care reform appears to be going badly for President Obama's health care reform approach, at least if you consider public opinion polls as the definitive word on such things. Pundits from across the political spectrum have begun to pronounce the president's effort a political failure for having failed to heed the number one rule in marketing - "keep it simple, stupid." President Obama has not only refused to develop effective sound bites and slogans, he has even had the audacity to use a primetime news conference to actually discuss and explain the provisions of a health care reform bill he would like to sign.Is he over estimating the capacity and/or willingness of Americans to understand both health care issues and the legislative process? Maybe. Have the Republicans jumped at the chance to exploit this "rookie" mistake by executing a classic misinformation and scare campaign against any reform of Health care? Yup. Could their hyperventalated and credibility challenged execution of this campaign be setting them up for failure? You betcha.
Maybe its naive, but I still believe that reality-based ideas do eventually win out over intentional misinformation campaigns. The precarious nature of American support for health care reform is, in my opinion, not due to right wing hysteria or intentional distortions like the "death panels." It is due to the fact that most Americans do not have health insurance problems. Most Americans have not faced the problems that reform is designed to correct. At best, most Americans see health insurance issues as "potential" problems they may face in the future. The larger stats regarding the costs and ineffectiveness of American health care are abstractions for most Americans and its too easy to brand those who brandish these system-wide deficiencies in a debate as "socialists."
President Obama has refused to go with the political S.O.P. in this fight, which would be to exagerate the crisis and fight hyperbolic opposition rhetoric with equally attention grabbing claims. Instead, The Obama White House has remained calm and reasonable, allowing increasing liberal frustration and hand ringing, and the domination of the late summer media stage by Republicans waging a classic "mediscare" campaign, much of which could have been taken from Democratic campaign scripts from the past.
WHAT IS THE PRESIDENT THINKING!?! While I cannot answer this question definitively, I can offer a theory that justifies my own confidence in the viability of real health care reform. The farther away from the media wars of the past month we get, the more rediculous the anti-reform claims are going to look, but because the White House refused to participate in the day-to-day media battle, Obama will have lots of dry powder, while his critics will be low on ammunition and credibility.
Obama has goaded the Republicans into over reaction and into a hastily fast-tracked rhetorical and media strategy. By putting so much emphasis on health care reform and by setting deadlines with a "line-in-the-sand" quality, Obama has exploited the chaos in the Republican Party by giving them the stage, but not giving them a clear health care reform target to campaign against. The lack of a clear, consistent message from the White House on health care reform has been criticized by liberals and conservatives, but it has also denied opponents a clear, legitimate target. Because the Republican Party is in disarray, and being dragged through the mud by folks with high visibility and low credibility, Republican opposition to a fuzzy plan was sure to be a circus and when you are being opposed by clowns, the last place you want to be is on stage with them.
I will pretend to have known all along next year when the President signs a health care reform bill that DOES include a public option. It it doesn't workout, I'll simply go with the wisdom ofthe great Roseanne Roseannadanna, and say "never mind"