Arlen Specter's surprise defection from the GOP should give the Republican Party just the kind of wake up call it needs. When Al Frankin gets to Washington, the Democrats will now have the magic number of 60 votes in the US Senate.What does it all mean for the Democratic agenda, the survival of the Republican Party nationally, and the public policy making process in the short and long run?
Obviously, Democrats are pleased, though having a filibuster proof majority isn't always a good thing. Conservative Democrats will now be exposed to greater scrutiny by the national press, limiting their ability to vote their districts (so to speak) when doing so would not impact the fate of legislation. With a strongly united Republican Party, the Democrats will need "all hands on deck" to further the Obama agenda. In other words, the purging of moderates from the Republican Party could put moderate Democrats at risk of similar alienation from the Democratic leadership. On the bright side, it should provide a good test of the Obama agenda's mainstream support. The new president's pragmatic approach thus far seems particularly well suited to the emerging partisan political landscape.
For the Republican Party, this surprise move should be seized on as an opportunity to expedite the Party's identity crisis. Can the party shed its current brand of cultural populism without losing its soul?
What about the precious "checks and balances" of our legislative process? Will a filibuster proof majority in the Senate turn that body into a pale imitation of the House? Is the Democratic Senate of 2009-10 going to devolve into something akin to the Republican House of Representatives under Newt Gingrich? Neither grim scenario is likely. First, President Obama's "post partisan" theme will allow him to have his cake and eat it too. He can support progressive reforms and serve as the Congressional Democrats' pragmatic and magnanimous leader, allowing the legislative party to play bad cop to his good cop. In other words, over the last 14 years Republicans have toyed with and in some cases changed the process to align it to their political and policy needs. Thanks to the confluence of many factors, Obama and the Democrats will likely have the luxury of pursuing their agenda without need of process reform.
If Arlen Specter is a Democrat, then already strained claims that we live in a center-right nation, are now on life support.