As an educator, activist, and citizen I spend a great deal of time trying to explain the relationship between institutions (like political parties, the Congress, the White House), ideas (like liberalism and conservatism, regulation and de-regulation), and interests (like winning elections). The 2008 presidential election is unfolding in a fascinating way. More than past elections, this one is providing striking examples of the complex inter-relationship between these factors as well as the serious misconceptions this complicated nexus produces among voters.The financial crisis unfolding in real time gives us an opportunity to highlight a clear, rational path through the morass for voters. Philosophically, the Republican Party is opposed to government regulation of the economy. The Democratic Party is philosophically in favor of economic regulation. Institutionally, the next president will have to work with a strong Democratic majority in Congress. And, it is obviously in the interest of commited ideologues on both isdes to win this presidential election.
If you believe that the present situation is strong evidence against the wisdom of conservative economic policies, and that the economy is the number one issue in this election, then voting for the Republican candidate would be irrational. Or, more precisely, voting for the Republican would have to be based on criteria other than economic policy. Voting for the Democratic candidate, on the other hand, should be a no brainer (for those who fit the above description).
Rational economic voters who should vote for McCain, however, include anyone who believes that increased regulation of financial institutions would make matters worse (i.e.fiscal conservatives), or voters who believe McCain would push for just enough new oversight without giving in to populist demands that could cause an overreaction by regulators. This second group of voters may or may not be conservative ideologues, but are generally more comfortable with divided government, which they see as safer than one party control.
This leads to another way to see this election. Electing the Democratic ticket will create a unified federal government, allowing legislation to pass much more easily and greatly reducing so-called "policy gridlock" in Washington. If that sounds like a good thing to you, you probably should lean Democratic this November. On the other hand, if you believe that our present economic and national security situation calls for more incremental, less comprehensive change, you might lean Republican as an expression of prudence and caution, while assuming that McCain will have to go along with the most urgent changes, but be better situated to prevent over-reaction to our present problems than Obama.
The botton line is that this election, like all elections, can be understood clearly and rationally, without all the BS, but only for those willing to approach this duty of citizenship with seriousness and an abiding confidence in the system and process, rather than an unbending commitment to either a cultural or economic identity. I'm not saying that you can stop those around you from losing their heads, but if you want to keep yours, turn off the TV, ignore the horse race, and do some basic homework. Pick the party nominee who bests matches your understanding of your interests and your ideas, while taking account of the institutional realities within which this candidate will have to operate as president.